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Knowledge is confidence.

Knowledge is confidence.

Quarterly Insights

January 11, 2024
2024 First Quarter Insights
The pessimism of 2023 was overstated; worrying dynamics had surprisingly more favorable outcomes – at least in the markets’ eyes. In 2024, we appear to have the opposite view: uber-optimism leaves the markets vulnerable to disappointment.”
2023 was certainly an interesting year at a minimum. As I had written in the 2023 Third Quarter Insights and in the Second Quarter of 2020 Insights, monetary policy is a key driver of risk assets.
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October 11, 2023
2023 Fourth Quarter Insights
“Everything is based off of interest rates… It’s a huge, huge, huge gravitational pull and affects what I am doing.”
The quote above is especially true today. Interest rate levels and risk assets go hand in hand. I often say that monetary policy is a key driver of risk assets.
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July 11, 2023
2023 Third Quarter Insights
“Do the job right the first time, so you do not have to come back a second time.”
On June 1st, 2023, we lost my father at the age of 84 after a multi-month battle with health issues.
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April 12, 2023
2023 Second Quarter Insights
“History repeats itself. Same story, just a different script.”
The government once again stepped in to stabilize markets during the first quarter of 2023 with the failure of two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank.
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January 11, 2023
2023 First Quarter Insights
“We have always lived in an uncertain world. What is certain is that the United States will go forward over time.”
Welcome to 2023 and good-bye 2022. To say 2022 was a challenging year for investors would be an understatement. The NASDAQ lost 33%, the S&P 500 lost 20% and it was only the third time since 1929 that bonds did not go up when equities went down.

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October 11, 2022
2022 Fourth Quarter Insights
“Chairman Powell talked quite a bit about JOLTS data – the job opening and labor turnover data. How tight it is …. Interesting thing, I look back a year ago September, it was exactly as tight as it is today. And he never said anything about inflation. What caused him to change his mind? It’s the same data.”
Thank goodness quarter three of 2022 is behind us. As we enter the fourth quarter, we reflect on a period that has seen the largest loss of investor capital ever experienced.
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July 7, 2022
2022 Third Quarter Insights
“You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.”
S&P 500 Posts the Worst First Half of Year Since 1970 (WSJ, July 1, 2022) Well, this headline about sums it up. The second quarter of 2022 seemed as challenging as the first quarter with the first half of 2022 being the largest loss of wealth in over three decades.
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April 7, 2022
2022 Second Quarter Insights
“Part of the wage increase that is really powerful is that you are starting to create some real benefits around the wage gap.”
As I sit in my Red Bank office this cold, wet and rainy first Sunday of April, I’ve found myself reflecting on what a challenging first quarter it has been to be an investor.
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January 18, 2022
2022 First Quarter Insights
“Do not invest blindly, but invest with knowledge, experience and confidence. Only then will you be successful.”
Happy New Year to all. 2021 is officially in the record books and, to most investors’ surprise, it turned out to be a good year. As we reflect on the past 18 months, we all have a lot to be thankful for.
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October 7, 2021
2021 Fourth Quarter Insights
“In my view, the biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. Not only is the mere drop in stock prices not risk, but it is an opportunity. Where else do you look for cheap stocks?”
The Delta Variant, Inflation, Interest Rates and Debt Ceiling (OMG!)
The third quarter was full of anxiety for the average investor with lots of chatter on the Delta Variant, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve discussions about tapering some of its much-needed COVID-19 economic stimulus and so much more.
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July 7, 2021
2021 Third Quarter Insights
“Life can only be understood in retrospect, but can only be lived going forward.”
“U.S inflation is the highest in 13 years.” – WSJ, June 10, 2021
“Consumer prices rise 5% over last year, fastest rate since 2008.” – CBS News, June 10, 2021
“Inflation is rising and that probably isn’t a good thing for stocks, says 60 years of data.” – Yahoo Finance, June 7, 2021

Wow, those are some scary headlines. The same sort of fearful media headlines we all witnessed during the peak of the Pandemic. Ladies and gentlemen, these types of headlines, yet important, should be always viewed with a high degree of skepticism and caution since they tend to appeal to the emotional side of human nature.
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April 9, 2021
2021 Second Quarter Insights
“Today’s a good day. Tomorrow will be better.”
In many ways, the events of 2020 are both significantly different and identical to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The major contrast is that the Great Recession was a structural event with massive wealth destruction, while the 2020 Pandemic was a transitory event leaving our economy and U.S. families with greater financial health and strength.
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January 18, 2021
2021 First Quarter Insights
It's Time to Turn the Page and Begin a New Chapter
As we turn the page from a COVID-driven pandemic world to a post-COVID pandemic world, we would like to thank all of you for the opportunity to play such an important part in your lives.
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October 8, 2020
2020 Fourth Quarter Insights
Industrial Revolution, say what?
Are we experiencing a modern-day industrial revolution, similar to the three prior transformative periods that changed and formed the society that we all live in today?
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July 7, 2020
2020 Third Quarter Insights
“Event + Response = Outcome It’s your choice.”
The relevance of the above is more appropriate than ever. If it sounds familiar, it’s likely because you’ve noticed it proudly displayed in my office.
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April 9, 2020
2020 Second Quarter Insights
“Periods of Instability Create Stability”
First and most importantly, I would like send our thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by this horrible virus and extend our deepest gratitude to all...
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